Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 11.672789 13.636348 15.781422 18.292494 21.144802 24.277245 27.970757
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.072515 10.598126 13.637458 17.535767 22.371393 28.138718 35.500295
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.882522 8.565398 12.078584 16.949388 23.450001 31.740354 43.011271
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.649239 7.413021 11.306428 17.071977 25.247986 36.259083 52.003610
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.669530 6.366388 10.429050 16.813190 26.365823 39.856382 60.000691
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.194251 5.960216 10.371999 17.658390 29.055093 45.784136 71.650828
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.719607 5.444841 10.035995 17.982949 30.936163 50.637976 82.084214
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.294678 4.920690 9.584366 18.025446 32.327560 54.811527 91.763296
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.951923 4.472084 9.178735 18.063199 33.668826 58.959427 101.648345
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.839205 4.447158 9.519517 19.420567 37.313463 67.008913 118.183217
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.680596 4.294263 9.591610 20.285968 40.167646 73.948711 133.361714
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.528653 4.123972 9.599818 21.019767 42.833425 80.733969 148.686238
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.300358 3.741365 9.140509 20.833829 43.877065 84.947959 160.208925
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.056955 3.265641 8.409916 20.015641 43.662285 86.964548 168.160484
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.868142 2.878820 7.805331 19.368319 43.693688 89.399208 176.982485
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.758360 2.676064 7.586403 19.510126 45.286875 94.783108 191.375263
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.641853 2.421796 7.198451 19.220916 45.961088 98.477254 202.907754
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.600942 2.385577 7.346700 20.170903 49.299311 107.458633 224.707862
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.538718 2.264277 7.253400 20.535529 51.406607 114.165898 242.586955
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.472073 2.108747 7.041233 20.583322 52.819476 119.582913 258.302154
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.414125 1.965953 6.838494 20.625734 54.216311 125.044977 274.390695
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.408521 2.016706 7.199887 22.148616 59.104305 137.908507 305.600670
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.385784 1.995007 7.343788 23.118719 62.785600 148.480592 332.779766